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By Thomas Downing

Weather, switch and chance provides an summary of 'extreme' climate comparable occasions and our skill to deal with them. It makes a speciality of society's responses, assurance concerns and methodologies for the research of climatic dangers. Drawing on all over the world examine from the top names within the box this quantity explores the adjustments in climate risks that may be anticipated because the international weather adjustments.

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An urban flood damage study was carried out for the Hawkesbury–Nepean and Queanbeyan regions of eastern Australia by Minnery and Smith (1996) using the ANUFLOOD damage model. g. a flood event with a 1 in 200 year return period could become a 1 in 50 year event), and events with return periods of less than 1 in 100 years could occur three times more often. Highly preliminary estimates suggest that the combined residential and commercial direct damage cost simulated by ANUFLOOD increases by factors of about 5 to 10 in the two regions.

The effect of warmer sea surface temperatures on ENSO could increase precipitation variability, but robust GCM scenarios are not yet available. OLSTHOORN ET AL. It may be useful to break down the uncertainty in future extreme events into three domains. For events directly related to heat, there is some agreement in present understanding of responses to climate change. Almost all models show regional warming, although some locales may diverge markedly from the regional pattern, for example owing to oceanic effects.

1, the ocean model is forced by observed climatological mean winds. The upper plot is a north–south section across the Equator of the top 300 m of the eastern Pacific, showing the east–west velocity. The lower plot is an east–west crosssection along the Equator showing ocean temperatures. These plots show that the model realistically simulates the dynamic and thermal structure of the tropical Pacific, including an equatorial undercurrent at the observed depth, and a ‘tight’ thermocline. Simulations of interannual variability using the CSIRO CEGCM model are also quite realistic, with irregular ENSO events occurring at intervals of 4 or 5 years.

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