By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a brand new epoch the place human actions will mostly be certain the evolution of Earth's weather. simply because carbon dioxide within the surroundings is lengthy lived, it may well successfully lock the Earth and destiny generations right into a variety of affects, a few of which may turn into very serious. Emissions mark downs judgements made at the present time topic in deciding on affects skilled not only over the following few many years, yet within the coming centuries and millennia. in line with weather Stabilization objectives: Emissions, Concentrations, and affects Over many years to Millennia, very important coverage judgements could be knowledgeable through contemporary advances in weather technology that quantify the relationships among raises in carbon dioxide and worldwide warming, similar weather adjustments, and ensuing affects, similar to adjustments in streamflow, wildfires, crop productiveness, severe scorching summers, and sea point upward thrust. a method to notify those offerings is to contemplate the projected weather adjustments and affects that will take place if greenhouse gases within the surroundings have been stabilized at a specific focus point. The ebook quantifies the results of other stabilization pursuits for greenhouse fuel concentrations utilizing analyses and knowledge drawn from the medical literature. even though it doesn't suggest or justify any specific stabilization goal, it does offer vital medical insights concerning the relationships between emissions, greenhouse fuel concentrations, temperatures, and affects. weather Stabilization pursuits emphasizes the significance of twenty first century offerings concerning long term weather stabilization. it's a resource for scientists, educators and coverage makers, between others.
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Extra resources for Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia
3} Ocean Circulation The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic Ocean is expected to slow down in the 21st century due to warming associated with increased greenhouse gases and associated increased ocean stratification. As a result, warming in the northern North Atlantic Ocean and surrounding maritime regions is expected to be smaller than other oceanic regions. Changes in fisheries and marine ecosystems could also result from a MOC slow-down, but these impacts are poorly understood.
All rights reserved. 4 The left panel shows illustrative examples (from calculations using the Bern Earth Model of Intermediate Complexity, see Chapter 2 and Methods) of how carbon dioxide concentrations would be expected to evolve depending upon emissions. Stable emissions (blue lines) do not result in stable concentrations because the source of carbon is much larger than the sink. Emission reductions larger than about 80% are required if concentrations are to be stabilized Figure 3 (green lines).
Bottom) Estimated global cumulative bitmap carbon emissions to date from fossil fuel burning and cement production, land use, and total. The figure also shows how much cumulative carbon would be emitted by 2050 if past trends in emission growth rates were to continue in the future, based upon a best fit to the past emission growth curve. 4} Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. , all the atoms), but just the mass of carbon atoms. 8 tons of carbon per year. Stated differently, about 550 million average American vehicles would emit 1 GtC per year.